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Netflix: The Future of Entertainment or House of Cards?
For better or worse, Netflix has changed not just the entertainment business, but also the way that we (the audience) watch television. In the process, it has also enriched its investors, as its market...
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Alphabet Soup: Google is Alpha, but where are the Bets?
In my last two posts, I looked first at the turn in the market against the FANG stocks, largely precipitated by the Facebook user data fiasco and then at the effect of the blowback on Facebook's value....
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Amazon: Glimpses of Shoeless Joe?
It was just over two weeks ago that I started my posts on the FANG stocks, starting with Facebook, which I decided to buy, because I felt that notwithstanding its current pariah status, its user base...
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Walmart's India (Flipkart) Gambit: Growth Rebirth or Costly Facelift?
On May 9, 2018, Walmart confirmed officially what had been rumored for weeks, and announced that it would pay $16 billion to acquire a 77% stake in Flipkart, an Indian online retail firm, translating...
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User and Subscriber Businesses: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly!
In a series of posts over the course of the last year, I argued that you can value users and subscribers at businesses, using first principles in valuation, and have used the approach to value Uber...
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Twists and Turns in the Tesla Story : A Boring, Boneheaded Update!
There are lots of complaints that you can have about Tesla, but being boring is not one of them. It helps to have a CEO who seems to find new ways to make himself newsworthy, in good and bad ways. In...
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Share Count Confusion: Dilution, Employee Options and Multiple Share Classes!
In my last post, just about four weeks ago, I valued Tesla, and as with all of my Tesla valuations, I got feedback, much of it heated. My valuation of Tesla was $186, in what I termed my base case, and...
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Country Risk: A Midyear Update for 2018
While political and trade wars are brewing around the world, centered on globalization, the enduring truth is that the globalization genie is out of the bottle, and no political force can put it back....
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The Privatization of Tesla: Stray Tweet or Game Changing News?
After my last two posts in Tesla, I was planning to take a break from the company, since I had said everything that I had to say about the company. In short, I argued that Tesla, notwithstanding its...
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The Privatization of Tesla:
After my last two posts in Tesla, I was planning to take a break from the company, since I had said everything that I had to say about the company. In short, I argued that Tesla, notwithstanding its...
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Deja Vu In Turkey: Currency Crisis and Corporate Insanity!
This has been a year of rolling crises, some originating in developed markets and some in emerging markets, and the market has been remarkably resilient through all of them. It is now Turkey's turn to...
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Trillion Dollar Toppers: Market Triggers, Value Drivers and Pricing Catalysts!
In the last few weeks, the market capitalization of Apple and Amazon each hit a trillion dollars, a threshold not seen before in public markets. Predictably, that has drawn press attention and...
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Apple and Amazon at a Trillion $: Looking Back and Looking Forward!
For most of us, even envisioning a trillion dollars is difficult to do, a few more zeros than we are used to seeing in numbers. Thus, when Apple’s market capitalization exceeded a trillion on August...
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Amazon and Apple at a Trillion $: A Follow-up on Uncertainty and Catalysts!
In my last post, I looked at Apple and Amazon, as their market caps exceeded a trillion dollars, tracing the journey that they took over the last two decades to get to that threshold and valuing them...
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High and higher: The Money in Marijuana!
In 1992, when Bill Clinton was running for president of the United States, and was asked whether he had ever smoked marijuana, he responded that he had, but that he did not inhale, reflecting the fear...
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An October Surprise? Making Sense of the Market Mayhem!
I don't know what it is about October that spooks markets, but it certainly feels like big market corrections happen in the month. As stocks have gone through contortions this month, more down than up,...
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The GE End Game: Bataan Death March or Turnaround Play?
It seems like ancient history, but it was just 2001, when GE was the most valuable company in the world, commanding a market capitalization in excess of $500 billion. The quintessential conglomerate,...
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Investing Whiplash: Looking for Closure with Apple and Amazon!
In September, I took a look, in a series of posts, at two companies that had crested the trillion dollar market cap mark, Apple and Amazon, and concluded that series with a post where I argued that...
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Is there a signal in the noise? Yield Curves, Economic Growth and Stock Prices!
The title of this post is not original and draws from Nate Silver's book on why so many predictions in politics, sports and economics fail. It reflects the skepticism with which I view many 'can't...
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January 2019 Data Update 1: A reminder that equities are risky, in case you...
In bull markets, investors, both professional and amateur, often pay lip service to the notion of risk, but blithely ignore its relevance in both asset allocation and stock selection, convinced that...
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